Pay Me In Euros

One-half mile into my four mile run on Tuesday, I decided to stop and stretch my angry right foot; mistake. Everything South of mid-Achilles started twitching and cramping, and the best I could manage was a walk back to my car.

After a conversation with Boston Rob today, he convinced me, with relative ease, that my new insoles are the bane of my existence, so today I removed them and walked out my door for an afternoon jog around the bayou. I immediately walked back in the apt. and took a nap! I decided that, even if the insoles are the culprit, nothing was to be gained by running. Going back to the Mizuno insoles wouldn't make my feet feel better, and might even inhibit my healing. It seems that, perhaps, my feet feel better in the morning, so I think I will try and run tomorrow AM. I have late softball games tomorrow, so the feet will be challenged! Also, I didn't get to the 25k signup page until online had closed, so I am not officially in the race yet. Scandal! Maybe not run? We'll see. I have until Saturday at packet pickup to make the call.

As for finance, wasn't today a fun day on Wall Street?!? 360 point decline as movers and shakers are finding a variety of unknowns (the impact of high oil, the size of the mortgage mess, and whether we've reached the bottom of the dollar's decline) to fret over. As much as we would like the bulls to move forward, we have to accept that most bull markets end in a recession. This bull lived on easy credit, so the mortgage mess would seem to be the end of its run. More to the point, the weakening dollar will increase inflation (those bananas from Columbia just got pricier), so the Fed will have less reason to cut rates. With a lower chance of future rate cuts, the markets will adjust to accept that fact; they will move lower and then move on. Consumer confidence is shot, so this Christmas doesn't seem to be set as a time for salvation for the markets, and a lot of people will start defaulting on their ARM's when they adjust next year. I think things will be pretty stinky until the end of the first quarter, and maybe longer if the mortgage mess is bigger than we think.

The markets will probably do their usual "run up" tomorrow, as bargain hunters move in, but I just don't see any reason to be excited about stocks now. Unless you're a stock picking maestro, it's probably past time to move out of the market into safer returns while we wait for this current crisis to end. Personally, I just want the dollar to stabilize. Nothing assures us that we get less rich than when the dollar is on the slide. More dangerously, if the dollar keeps sliding while oil keeps rising and the markets keep tanking, we could enter a period of "stagflation", which is when inflation is running hot, but the economy is shrinking. Again, in the vein of not getting more poor, let's avoid stagflation! Perhaps it's time the Fed and Treasury changed course and start propping up the dollar instead of the financial markets. China said today that they might diversify their $1.4 trillion in US Dollars into Euros; if so, things may get even nastier! Anyone know where I can buy some gold bullion ....